戈登股利增长模型（Gordon Dividend Growth Month)

 什么叫戈登股利增长模型？

　　戈登股利增长模型又称为“股利贴息不变增长模型”、“戈登模型(Gordon Model)”，在大多数理财学和投资学方面的教材中，戈登模型是一个被广泛接受和运用的股票估价模型，该模型通过计算公司预期未来支付给股东的股利现值，来确定股票的内在价值，它相当于未来股利的永续流入。戈登股利增长模型是股息贴现模型的第二种特殊形式，分两种情况：一是不变的增长率；另一个是不变的增长值。

　　不变增长模型有三个假定条件：

　　1、股息的支付在时间上是永久性的。

　　2、股息的增长速度是一个常数。

　　3、模型中的贴现率大于股息增长率。

　　在戈登模型中，需要预测的是下一期股利及其年增长率，而不是预计每一期的股利，以下就是固定股利增长率政策下未来股利的流入量表：

　　将所有现金流折现到0点　　

　　……，无限项

　　应用等比数列的求和公式，上式可以简化为：

　　由于这个公式十分简单，因此人们很容易忘记这是一个无限项的运算。

　　根据这个模型，公司的股利政策会对股票价值产生影响。这个模型十分有用，原因之一就是它使投资者可以确定一个不受当前股市状况影响的公司的绝对价值或“内在价值”。其次，戈登模型对未来的股利（而不是盈余）进行计量，关注投资者预期可以获得的实际现金流量，有助于不同行业的企业之间进行比较。尽管这个模型的概念十分简单，但是除了一些机构投资者以外，应用范围并不广泛，因为如果缺乏必要的数据和分析工具，它用起来就非常麻烦。

　　股利增长模型被麦伦·戈登教授得以推广，因此被称为“戈登模型”，这个模型几乎在每一本投资学教材中都会出现。纽约大学教授Aswath Damodaran在他所著的《投资估价》一书中写道：“从长期来看，用戈登模型低估（高估）的股票胜过（不如）风险调整的市场指数。”尽管任何一种投资模型都不可能永远适用于所有股票，但戈登模型仍被证明是一种可靠的方法，用以选择那些在长期从总体上看走势较好的股票。它应该是投资者用来在其投资组合中选择其中一些股票时运用的有效工具之一。

 戈登股利增长模型的主要内容

　　该模型认为，用投资者的必要收益率折现股票的必要现金红利，可以计算出股票的理论价格。

　　戈登模型(Golden Model)揭示了股票价格、预期基期股息、贴现率和股息固定增长率之间的关系，用公式表示为：

　　P=D/(i-g)

　　其中：P为股票价格；D为预期基期每股股息；i为贴现率；g为股息年增长率。

　　由于股票市场的投资风险一般大于货币市场，投资于股票市场的资金势必要求得到一定的风险报酬，使股票市场收益率高于货币市场，形成一种收益与风险相对应的较为稳定的比价结构，所以戈登模型中的贴现率i应包括两部分，其一是货币市场利率r，其二是股票的风险报酬率i′，即i=r+i′，故戈登模型可进一步改写为如下公式：

　　P=D/(r+i′-g)

　　这一模型说明股票价格P与货币市场利率r成反向关系，r越高，股价P越低，反之亦然，这一关系被现今各国实践所证实。

　　戈登股利增长模型的公式详解：

　　贴现现金流模型的公式如下：

　　 　　　　　(1)

　　式中：

V——股票的内在价值；

D_t——在未来时期以现金形式表示的每股股利；

k——在一定风险程度下现金流的合适的贴现率。

　　如果我们假设股利永远按不变的增长率增长，那么就会建立不变增长模型。T时点的股利为：

　　D_t = D_t − 1(1 + g)

　　 = D₀(1 + g)^t　　(2)

　　用D_t = D₀(1 + g)^t置换公式(1)中的分子D_t，得出：

　　　

　　　　(3)

　　运用数学中无穷级数的性质，如果k＞g，可知：

　　 　　　　(4)

　　把公式(4)代入公式(3)中，得出不变增长模型的价值公式：

　　 　　　(5)

　　假如去年某公司支付每股股利为1.80元，预计在未来日子里该公司股票的股利按每年5%的速率增长。因此，预期下一年股利等于1.80×(1+0.05)=1.89(元)。假定必要收益率是11%，根据公式(5)可知，该公司的股票等于1.80×(1+0.05)/(0.11-0.05)=1.89/(0.11-0.05)=31.50(元)。而当今每股股票价格是40元，因此股票被高估8.50元，建议当前持有该股票的投资者出售其股票。

　　方程(5)可用于解出不变增长证券的内部收益率。首先，用股票的当今价格代替V，其次，用k ^* 代替k，其结果是：

　　 　　　(6)

　　经过变换，可得：

　　

　　 　　

　　　　(7) 

　　用上述公式来计算上例公司股票的内部收益率，得出：

　　

　　　

　　由于该公司股票的内在收益率小于其必要收益率，显示出该公司股票价格被高估。

不变增长模型与零增长模型的关系

　　零增长模型实际上是不变增长模型的一个特例。假定增长率g等于0，股利将永远按固定数量支付，这时，不变增长模型就是零增长模型。

　　从这两种模型来看，虽然不变增长的假设比零增长的假设有较小的应用限制，但是在许多情况下仍然被认为是不现实的。由于不变增长模型是多元增长模型的基础，因此这种模型极为重要

Reference : http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_5f5f9a890100d69g.html

Fundamental Analysis Concepts & REIT

[Investor Basics] Fundamental Analysis Concepts & REIT

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Following two previous posts on Investor Basics – Concepts & Style and Technical Analysis Concepts, this article would look at one of the best yielding groups of stocks in the stock market – REIT, as well as some of the other terms related to Fundamental Analysis Concepts.

Real Estate Investment Trust

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT for short) are securities of companies that manage properties in their portfolio and distribute the profits from these properties, revenue from the rents and leases, to their unitholders.

Proper terms for REIT are slightly different from a normal stock counter.
In REIT, a stockholder is known as a unitholder, a share is known as a unit, dividends are called distributions.
As REITs are unique, profits that come from their rents or leases are to be distributed at 90%! Yes, 90% of the profits MUST be distributable. Note that this is only so for REIT!

As REIT gives constant and stable (for most of them anyway) distributions, many passive investors like REIT for their simplicity and consistency. Active Investors like REIT for their stock appreciation during key periods like during distribution periods or when there are announcement on new property acquisitions.

Personal advice for speculators in REIT is to stay away. The reasons being are while REIT many appreciate, the primary idea is to look at the distribution yield. This alone already puts an invisible resistance on the REIT counter. Another reason is that since the REIT distributes most of their profits, their cash flow is limited. So while REIT does appreciate, they will usually do so gradually and slowly, something that short-term traders must take note of.

The primary concept when one wants to own units of REIT (usually for a mid to long term), should be for the constant distribution and the distribution yield. However, there are other important figures to look out for in REITs. These figures while subjective to the eye of the beholder, gives certain insight on things that are not seen by the naked eye.

Distributions

Distributions give a constant stream of money back from your investments. While similar todividends, companies that give dividends usually have no obligation or fixed policy to do so but distributions are necessity for Trust securities.

Distributions of REITs are usually given semi-annually or quarterly. There is a list of REITs and the frequency of their distributions at the end of this article.

Distribution Yield

Distribution yield, similar to dividend yield already covered in my earlier article, is calculated by taking the total annual DPU (distribution per unit) divided by the price of the stock at the point in time the yield is to be calculated, multiply by 100%.

Example: $0.10 (total annual DPU) / $1.30 (price of stock when calculating yield) x 100% = 7.69%

What this means is that, based on the price of $1.30, the REIT returns 7.69% annually.
You can use this figure as a guide if you want to invest into this REIT. Assuming that the current stock price is now at $1.50 instead of $1.30 and assuming that the total annual distribution stays the same at $0.10, the current distribution yield is no longer 7.69% but 6.66%. Its yield has dropped by 1% and the rule of thumb is that the yield will keep dropping as the REIT stock price increases and if its annual DPU stays the same or dips.

Meaningful: Distribution yield will tell you the percentage of returns you can expect annually from the amount you intend to invest or had invested.

Passive investors should use distribution yield to calculate the optimal price they want to invest into an REIT based on the returns they want to see. Annual DPU & distribution yield are always indicated in all REITs' financial year end reports.

Net Asset Value Per Unit (NAVPU) / Net Asset Value Per Share (NAVPS)

Net Asset Value Per Unit (NAVPU) or Net Asset Value Per Share (NAVPS) if referring to a non-REIT stock, is the current value of the security per unit listed in the market. How this is calculated is by taking all of the current assets of the REIT, minus away its liabilities, divided by its units outstanding in the stock market.

To put this in layman’s term, if an REIT has to sell all its properties, cash out on all of its investments and liquidate whatever other assets it has and after paying off all its liabilities, divide the outstanding money to its unitholders, this is the value of each unit. A higher NAVPU tend to usually mean a greater "value" of the REIT.

Meaningful: NAV per unit or share will tell you how much value the unit or stock is worth in the current market.

Passive investors can use NAVPU/NAVPS to determine if a unit/stock counter is overpriced or undervalued. It is indicated on the financial report under “Net Asset Value per Unit”.

Gearing Ratio (Debt-to-Asset Ratio / Debt Ratio)

As all REITs require heavy financing for their acquisitions and operations, the gearing ratio calculated is Debt-to-Asset ratio (or commonly known as Debt ratio), where the total debts is divided by the total assets multiplied by 100%.

All REITs can have a maximum of 60% of gearing only after having their credit rating given by Fitch, Moody’s, or Standard & Poor’s. Otherwise, they can only have a maximum of 35%.

Meaningful: Debt-to-Asset Ratio will tell you how much financial leverage the REIT or company has and is currently using.

Passive investors can use Debt-to-Asset ratio to determine if the company is having too much debts or borrowing heavily (especially if the ratio is greater than 100%). Different industry and sectors have different borrowing range. Use this to compare companies within the same sector to determine which have stronger positive cash flow. Gearing ratios are usually indicated in the presentation slides or press releases.

Refencence Link

投資選股5要訣

我想投資股，請問首先如何選擇股項？

答：股市前輩指出，在投資前，最好要掌握有關股項的5大事項，即要注意股東基金回酬率（ROE）、營運現金流（OCF）、自由現金流（FCF）、本益比（P/E）、周息率（DY）及淨有形資產（NTA）等，主要可反映有關投資項目或上市公司的營運情況及其價值，以便達到低買高賣的效果。

●第一項的股東基金回酬率，也稱為股本回酬率。這是淨利與平均股東基金的百分比，主要是反映股東權益的收益水平，數目是越高超越好。這是判斷一家上市公司的獲利能力的重要指標之一，也是衡量公司內部財務，行銷及經營績效，以及未來成長潛在的指標。

計算公式：盈利／股東基金

●第二項的營運現金流，就是指投資項目投入使用後，在其周期內由於生產經營所帶來的現金流入和流出的數量。包括年度營業淨利和年折舊等。營運現金流一般按年度計算，而現金流入一般指營業現金收入，而現金流出是指營業現金支出和交納的稅金。

如果一個投資項目每年銷售收入，等於營業現金收入，付現成本等於營業現金支出。

●第三項的自由現金流（FCF），是從營運來的現金流量，減除為維持現有營運所需資本支出和稅金後餘額。
自由現金流可成為業務成長擴充，也可以作為發放股東股利，清償負債或是預留下來備度過景氣蕭條期。總之，自由現金流量是公司在不影響營運下，可以自由使用的現金餘額，也是衡量公司財務彈性的指標。

自由現金流量=營運現金流量－資本支出－利息－稅金

●第四項的本益比，是每股市價與每股盈利的比率。

計算方式：本益比=股票市價／每股淨利（通常是年度淨利）

例如該公司年度每股淨利是20仙，而市價是2令吉的話，本益比則是2令吉除以20仙，等於10倍水平。數目是越低越好，或反映入場市價低。

●第五項的周息率，則是指股票過去1年的派息總和與股價的比率。這是個浮動數字，會隨著每日股價起落，以及派息增減而有所變動。
計算公式為；周息率=派息總和／股價 X 100%。

例如年度派發的每股淨股息為10仙，而市價是1令吉，而周息率為10仙除以1令吉再x100%，就等於10%，這個數據是越高就越好，顯示派發高股息，又或是市價相應地走低。

每股淨有形資產，就是公司所擁有的資產數目，數據是越高越好。上述一點資料供參考。（星洲日報／投資致富‧投資問診‧文：李文龍）

成大事必備的6種能力及9種手段

成大事必備的6種能力及9種手段

一：沉穩

（1）不要隨便顯露你的情緒。

（2）不要逢人就訴說你的困難和遭遇。

（3）在徵詢別人的意見之前，自己先思考，但不要先講。

（4）不要一有機會就嘮叨你的不滿。

（5）重要的決定儘量有別人商量，最好隔一天再發佈。

（6）講話不要有任何的慌張，走路也是。


二：細心

（1）對身邊發生的事情，常思考它們的因果關係。

（2）對做不到位的執行問題，要發掘它們的根本癥結。

（3）對習以為常的做事方法，要有改進或優化的建議。

（4）做什麼事情都要養成有條不紊和井然有序的習慣。

（5）經常去找幾個別人看不出來的毛病或弊端。

（6）自己要隨時隨地對有所不足的地方補位。


三：膽識

（1）不要常用缺乏自信的詞句

（2）不要常常反悔，輕易推翻已經決定的事。

（3）在眾人爭執不休時，不要沒有主見。

（4）整體氛圍低落時，你要樂觀、陽光。

（5）做任何事情都要用心，因為有人在看著你。

（6）事情不順的時候，歇口氣，重新尋找突破口，就結束也要乾淨俐落。


四：大度

（1）不要刻意把有可能是夥伴的人變成對手。

（2）對別人的小過失、小錯誤不要斤斤計較。

（3）在金錢上要大方，學習三施（財施、法施、無畏施）

（4）不要有權力的傲慢和知識的偏見。

（5）任何成果和成就都應和別人分享。

（6）必須有人犧牲或奉獻的時候，自己走在前面。


五：誠信

（1）做不到的事情不要說，說了就努力做到。

（2）虛的口號或標語不要常掛嘴上。

（3）針對客戶提出的“不誠信"問題，拿出改善的方法。

（4）停止一切“不道德"的手段。

（5）耍弄小聰明，要不得！

（6）計算一下產品或服務的誠信代價，那就是品牌成本。


六：擔當

（1）檢討任何過失的時候，先從自身或自己人開始反省。

（2）事項結束後，先審查過錯，再列述功勞。

（3）認錯從上級開始，表功從下級啟動

（4）著手一個計畫，先將權責界定清楚，而且分配得當。

（5）對“怕事"的人或組織要挑明瞭說。

（6）因為勇於承擔責任所造成的損失，公司應該承擔


九種手段：

1、敢於決斷－－克服猶豫不定的習性

很多人之所以一事無成，最大的毛病就是缺乏敢於決斷的手段，總是左顧右盼、思前想後，從而錯失成功的最佳時機。成大事者在看到事情的成功可能性到來時，敢於做出重大決斷，因此取得先機。


2、挑戰弱點－－徹底改變自己的缺陷

人人都有弱點，不能成大事者總是固守自己的弱點，一生都不會發生重大轉變；能成大事者總是善於從自己的弱點上開刀，去把自己變成一個能力超強的人。一個連自己的缺陷都不能糾正的人，只能是失敗者！


3、突破困境－－從失敗中撮成功的資本

人生總要面臨各種困境的挑戰，甚至可以說困境就是“鬼門關”。一般人會在困境面前渾身發抖，而成大事者則能把困境變為成功的有力跳板。


4、抓住機遇－－善於選擇、善於創造

機遇就是人生最大的財富。有些人浪費機遇輕而易舉，所以一個個有巨大潛力的機遇都悄然溜跑，成大事都是絕對不允許溜走，並且能縱身撲向機遇。


5、發揮強項－－做自己最擅長的事情

一個能力極弱的人肯定難以打開人生局面，他必定是人生舞臺上重量級選手的犧牲品；成大事者關於在自己要做的事情上，充分施展才智，一步一步地拓寬成功之路。


6、調整心態－－切忌讓情緒傷害自己

心態消極的人，無論如何都挑不起生活和重擔，因為他們無法直面一個個人生挫折，成大事者則關於高速心態，即使在毫無希望時，也能看到一線成功的亮光。


7、立即行動－－只說不做，徒勞無益

一次行動勝過百遍心想。有些人是“語言的巨人，行動的矮子”，所以看不到更為實際現實的事情在他身上發生；成大事者是每天都靠行動來落實自己的人生計畫的。


8、善於交往－－巧妙利用人力資源

一個人不懂得交往，必然會推動人際關係的力量。成大事者的特點之一是：善於靠借力、借熱去營造成功的局勢，從而能把一件件難以辦成的事辦成，實現自己人生的規劃。


9、重新規劃－－站到更高的起點上

人生是一個過程，成功也是一個過程。你如果滿足于小成功，就會推動大成功。成大事者懂得從小到大的艱辛過程，所以在實現了一個個小成功之後，能繼續拆開下一個人生的“密封袋”。
相

坐廉价航空要诀

master lease

A lease between the owner of property and its direct tenant, with all other leases subject to the first one.A tenant may sublease or assign part or all of its space on its own terms and conditions, but the parties will always be bound by the master lease because they are subordinate to it.

Gearing Ratio

Gearing ratio

Gearing focuses on the capital structure of the business – that means the proportion of finance that is provided by debt relative to the finance provided by equity (or shareholders).
The gearing ratio is also concerned with liquidity.  However, it focuses on the long-term financial stability of a business.
Gearing (otherwise known as "leverage") measures the proportion of assets invested in a business that are financed by long-term borrowing. 
In theory, the higher the level of borrowing (gearing) the higher are the risks to a business, since the payment of interest and repayment of debts are not "optional" in the same way as dividends. However, gearing can be a financially sound part of a business's capital structure particularly if the business has strong, predictable cash flows.
The formula for calculating gearing is:

Long-term liabilities include loans due more than one year + preference shares + mortgages
Capital employed = Share capital + retained earnings + long-term liabilities

The gearing calculation can be calculated like this:

	2012 £’000	2011 £’000
Long-term liabilities	1,200	1,450
Capital employed	5,655	4,675
Gearing ratio	21.2%	31.0%

According to the data the gearing ratio at 31 December 2012 was 21.2%, a reduction from 31.0% a year earlier.  This was largely because the business reduced long-term borrowings by £200,000 and added over £1million to retained earnings. 
How can the gearing ratio be evaluated?

• A business with a gearing ratio of more than 50% is traditionally said to be “highly geared”.
• A business with gearing of less than 25% is traditionally described as having “low gearing”
• Something between 25% - 50% would be considered normal for a well-established business which is happy to finance its activities using debt.

For the above business, that would suggest that the business is relatively lowly-geared and that the capital structure of the business is pretty safe and cautious.
It is important to remember that financing a business through long-term debt is not necessarily a bad thing!  Long-term debt is normally cheap, and it reduces the amount that shareholders have to invest in the business.
What is a sensible level of gearing?  Much depends on the ability of the business to grow profits and generate positive cash flow to service the debt.  A mature business which produces strong and reliable cash flows can handle a much higher level of gearing than a business where the cash flows are unpredictable and uncertain.

Another important point to remember is that the long-term capital structure of the business is very much in the control of the shareholders and management.  Steps can be taken to change or manage the level of gearing – for example:

Reduce Gearing	Increase Gearing
Focus on profit improvement (e.g. cost minimisation	Focus on growth – invest in revenue growth rather than profit
Repay long-term loans	Convert short-term debt into long-term loans
Retain profits rather than pay dividends	Buy-back ordinary shares
Issue more shares	Pay increased dividends out of retained earnings
Convert loans into equity	Issue preference shares or debentures

Reference Link : www.tutor2u.net